Caught between two worlds but really, it's a new world

Istanbul is a city I've always wanted to visit, the bridge between two worlds, the place where the East truly and physically meets the West. Finally, I would see for myself the physical blending of Europe and Asia in one spot.

And what a heady mix it is. I love it that the two parts seem to blend into one and yet exist as separate parts. Somehow it is one country, yet two worlds. Walk on the European side and you know you are in Turkey yet it has a distinctly European feel in its streets, buildings and people - a tad more formal, a bit more structured.

Walk on the Asian side and you know you are in Turkey as well yet it feels like the Asia I know - neighbourhoods which are more residential, people who are friendlier and warmer and storekeepers who know their customers by name.

One moonlit night, standing at the pier off Hotel Les Ottomans where I was staying, I looked out over the Bosphorus, the old Galata Bridge in the distance bridging the two continents, and I realized I couldn't have chosen a more pivotal time to be in Istanbul.

Yes, 2010 is a pivotal year for the travel industry because we are seeing a shifting in the balance of power on several fronts.

1. Asia is on the ascent

Asia is on the rise, Europe is still mired in its economic woes and social issues are deep-rooted and hard to change. Yes, it's been uttered for as long as I can remember - Asia is the new economy but I think this is the moment of truth. In Istanbul, my tour guide told me that Turks like him believe their country should stop wanting to join the EU ("they don't want us anyway) and instead look towards Asia ("they want to work with us"). Until Europe works through its issues, Asia's star will continue to rise.

2. Social trumps search

Facebook has overtaken Google to become the most visited website in the US for the first time. A Hitwise report ending March 13 showed that Facebook surpassed Google in weekly hits - Facebook accounted for 7.07% of visits in the week ended March 13, versus 7.03% for Google. Facebook almost tripled its visits from a year earlier, compared with 9% growth at Google.

This underscores a fundamental shift in the way people are using the Web. This year, though, social media has to prove it pays off financially as well and that it is more than a buzz thing, otherwise watch the pendulum swing in yet another direction.

3. The rise of the independents and the disruptors

The Web and the way it is evolving - the new chaos, as tipped by PhoCusWright's CEO Philip Wolf - requires flexibility and nimbleness to navigate. It is an environment ripe for quick thinking, fast innovation and disruption. Already, independents are proving their ability to use social media more effectively than processes-burdened chains and they have the advantage as the Web splinters further. The question is, do they have the will and the wits?

4. The fight for the Middle Kingdom

As the distance between supplier and customer shrinks - every consumer is now a potential moving target with the rise of smart phones - the middle ground has become increasingly blurred.

In the traditional channels, intermediaries who have yet to rethink their business models will have to do so this year, and act fast. Evolution may be too slow a process in today's quick-paced world, it may take nothing short of a revolution in thinking.

In the online channel, the whole trip planning and buying process has also changed with more new players entering the space. Itinerary management (TripIt) and itinerary-directed transactions (Gliider) are two examples of disruptors to the traditional life cycle -ie, the value proposition to the customer may no longer be focused on the moment of the sale but on the value at each point for the consumer.

Alternative distribution systems are emerging to find their place in the disintermediation and re-intermediation that's going on.

5. Direct's the new black

In the past, travel companies used to be coy about their direct-to-customer strategies, fearing they would antagonize their intermediary partners. Now, they shout about it. Even tourism boards, the most political of animals, have stopped being shy about it. The Singapore Tourism Board, with its new digital strategy under the "YourSingapore" branding, has basically thrown the gauntlet down and say this is the way of the future - empowering customers to plan their own itineraries and book, if they wish to. The execution may not be faultless but the intention is clear. Get onboard the digital train or get left behind.

Launching the new strategy at a trade show like ITB Berlin took either courage or naivete. Traditional tour operators were not amused, with one saying, "Now STB wants to be a tour operator?"

After I returned from Istanbul, friends kept asking me, "Is it more like Europe or is it more like Asia?"

It's a difficult question to answer but I think it's a little bit of both - just like in the new world where everything is fluid and fast-changing, and roles are not that clearly defined anymore.